Chemical fiber raw materials is the focus of petrochemical products field, aromatic type of PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and upstream product PX (paraxylene), ethylene glycol category is the main raw material for synthetic fiber. In 2008, with the international market in crude oil prices climbed a record high also fall into the low, chemical fiber raw materials market has also experienced ups and downs. 2009, by the benefit, bad combination of factors, it is expected that the market will continue to adjust to withstand shocks.

Policy implications

Outlook 2009 chemical fiber raw materials market, obviously can not be separated from changes in international oil prices. According to the National Information Center for Analysis of the Economic Forecast Department, if the prospects for world economic growth, better-than-expected international oil prices will regain their upward trend; the other hand, if a serious recession, oil prices may decline further. Of chemical fiber raw materials should also be the case of the market, and its degree of market economy fundamentally, as the oil market fluctuate. However, this market also has its own characteristics, with the exception of crude oil prices, will from the policy level, the relationship between supply and demand, production, etc. are affected.

Policy level, national policy to stimulate the economy gradually introduced. Ministry of Finance from January 1 onwards to import refined oil consumption tax adjustment on the used ethylene, aromatics products raw material naphtha has paid consumption tax on imports to be returned. This will reduce the production of chemical fiber raw materials costs, stimulate the production of the relevant manufacturers enthusiasm.

The impact of supply and demand relations

Supply and demand relations, chemical fiber raw materials depends largely on the downstream market demand. The market’s supply and demand is expected to increase the performance of the most sensitive.

Chemical fiber market wang, chemical fiber raw materials can lead to market-wang. The chemical fiber market in 2009 is not optimistic. Not long ago, the Canton Fair, held from the situation, China’s textile and garment production capacity is too large, the United States, Europe, Japan the three major economies have a stronger dependence. In the current global economic crisis, China’s exports of textile and garment industry to shrink significantly. Clearly, chemical fiber raw materials in reducing demand.

However, PX, PTA and ethylene glycol production capacity is expanding. PX domestic new capacity in 2009 is expected to reach 2.14 million tons, including China Shipping Huizhou aromatics PX devices to achieve an annual output of 840,000 tons. Fu Jia Dalian Dahua arene completed installation, the joint device has a annual production capacity of 700,000 tons PX, 35 million tons of benzene and toluene capacity of 100,000 tons is expected to start the first quarter of 2009 will begin commercial production, the vast majority of products will be sold in the domestic market, a large proportion will be sold to East China PTA maker.

As a result of oversupply, global PX device utilization rate reached its peak in 2007 after the downward trend is expected in 2009 will reach the bottom of the last three years. Clearly, the domestic situation is also very optimistic.

PTA, the expansion in Asia in 2009 slowed down, but there is still a certain scale, of which an effective output of China’s new capacity expected to reach 800,000 tons, including Chongqing Fuling Peng Wei of 300,000 tons, Fujian Jialong of 320,000 tons, Jiangsu Petrochemical such as 100,000 tons. Per ton PTA consumption is only 0.66 tons PX, PTA of PX demand growth is less than PX effectively increase production capacity so that the sale of PX more severe situation, directly constrains the production of aromatics.

Glycol future will continue to pressure suppliers, global production capacity with the problem of surplus, the Middle East has become the focus of production capacity expansion areas, its main target markets are China, is expected in 2009 China will import 5.48 million tons ethylene glycol, an increase of 2.4 over the previous year %, so the products in the market situation remains grim.

The impact of production

Production, chemical fiber raw material suppliers are facing a serious market situation measures are being taken, some manufacturers have cut production, resulting in the spot source of tension. PTA major domestic manufacturers such as BP Zhuhai, Ningbo Mitsubishi, Xianglu, petrochemical, and other sources have announced production cuts, coupled with Taiwan-based (Ningbo), Itsumori (Dalian) device driving cycle may be postponed, resulting in the domestic PTA plant inventory, sales pressure significantly mitigation. According to statistics, the current cash shortfall in the supply of about 100,000 tons, becoming PTA support rates are going up the main factors.

Similarly, PX suppliers also substantially reduced, resulting in tension between supply and demand, so that PX prices from the lowest point in the previous period 550 U.S. dollars / ton pick-up to the current 600 U.S. dollars / metric tons. Such a measure is expected to be reduced in 2009 to continue the implementation of chemical fiber raw materials can not but have an impact on the market.

To sum up, and short-term policy to stimulate the supply of factors such as the reduction will promote chemical fiber raw materials prices rebounded, but the terminal remains in the doldrums demand is bound to restrict prices to rebound highly limited and gradually weakened as rising energy, chemical fiber raw material market medium and long-term shocks in 2009 to adjust the pattern remains unchanged.