2008 International Cotton (11720,10.00,0.09%,) prices rose after the first or, at present remain at historically low cotton price in 2009 the direction of the country where it? U.S. Mississippi State University professor OACleveland pointed out that the price is expected to rebound next year. Following is the content of its analysis:

The world’s major economies and most of the smaller economies (if not all) of the sharp drop in consumer incomes have emerged, while developing economies decline in the basic income returns, which continue to plague cotton and other commodities market. More obvious is that the Chinese enormous losses, although the extent of losses is lower than the U.S. and Europe. India’s economic damage is less than China, but India may also be the verge of collapse at any time. Textile goods, lack of consumer demand especially for the textile industry in China and caused massive destruction, so far, China is the world’s largest textile countries, constitute the world’s textile industry 45%. No country immune to this, almost no goods spared this. However, feed grain and oilseed prices will be better than cotton, simply because Hunger breeds.

The impact of the cotton market has two main problems. First of all, the steady decline in consumer incomes, has been going on for 12 months. This issue led to consumer spending, purchasing only the most basic necessities of life. Textiles do not belong to the basic materials of life. In addition, the real income of consumers is expected to continue to reduce, at least through 12 months. Other food crisis linked with the problem, now the food crisis has entered the third year. But now, improved. However, the world’s major grain-producing areas of bad weather that could cause food shortages continue. Therefore, the potential food crisis on the food and oilseed market strength may be greater than the actual impact of the food crisis.

Superposition of these two issues together, will at least lead to next year’s cotton acreage continued to decline, perhaps the impact of two years. Held this week to discuss agricultural market network monthly meeting, many speakers said that cotton prices may rebound. Subsequently, RaboBank banks followed that in 2009 cotton prices will go up.

It is difficult to refute such an analysis. Prices are likely to strengthen. However, export sales very poor, not only because the costs are too high, but the main reason is that under the current consumer demand, the textile manufacturing capacity already. China and the subcontinent, the closure of many textile production line. However, China shut down more. Thus, although the world’s carry-over stocks close to the highest level in history, but cotton prices are likely to rise slightly, because the current prices may go overboard a. Is engaged in commodity trading, therefore, one’s mood is a major factor in market behavior, people’s emotions are always over-react. Therefore, the price is always the basis of one’s mood up too high or fall too low, a storm in a teacup Shakespeare (Much Ado About Nothing) can be very aptly used in cotton prices rose upcoming market. The next 12 months, any price increase as long as close to 56-58 cents range, it will certainly encounter resistance. Coupled with excess production and demand dropped sharply by 2010, the market will be rising prices would be subdued.

All cotton, cotton growers Add commodity loan company (CCC) loan scheme, the need to consider financial issues. Market prices are still lower than production costs. Growers have strongly recommended is the time to postpone the sale of cotton. However, such a proposal could lead to lower their income losses.