This week, the cotton trading pool only the lack of news is news. The lack of progress in the market, only to kill time, spot trading in the doldrums, speculators are only interested in low-volume transactions. Cotton demand could best reflect the depressed state of international trade, the current lack of demand, sales are recent demand. Market really can not find the breakthrough point, unless some new information to the nerve to touch the transaction pool.

The United States Department of Agriculture in February supply and demand report will be next Tuesday (2.10) release. The report will not be any shocking news. However, we expect that world cotton consumption is reduced by 50 million bales, down to about 116 million package. Therefore ,2008-09 World carry-over stocks may be raised to 59.3 million packages. In addition, the U.S. domestic textile mill cotton consumption may be further reduced by 10 million bales to 420 million bales. However, the United States Department of Agriculture next month’s report, the domestic cotton consumption lowered again to 400 million bales. Exports may be slightly down from 11.75 million bags, the United States Department of Agriculture this month, the report will not adjust export, is still maintained at 12 million packets. Therefore, in the ensuing months the report ,2008-09 carry-over stocks in the United States may be raised to 7.5 million bags, or lower than the current estimated increase of 40 million bales.

National Cotton Council will be held Friday (2.13) planting intentions report released nationwide. From a historical point of view, this report is accurate. This is an important news, but the United States planting dynamic to continue until mid-March.

January 29, 2009 The End of the week, weekly export sales showed that the net sales of only 94,100 bales during the upland cotton sales 92,400 bales Pima sales of 1,700 packages. Pakistan has the main buyer in Upland Cotton (26,800 packets); Mexico and Turkey. Pima main buyer has unknown destinations (1000 packets); Japan and Indonesia. The total volume of exports only 195,800 bags, 194,500 deliveries during the upland cotton bales Pima 1300 packet delivery. Upland cotton in China has major destinations (63200 RB); Turkey and Mexico. Pima has the major destinations of China (700 packets) and Indonesia. Exports slow speed of delivery, indicating the United States Department of Agriculture export forecast will be lowered sooner or later, the reduction can be as high as 250,000 packets.

Texas, south-central and central regions are the driest areas of the United States. Plateau region and the Texas rolling plains region near the 50-year drought. Therefore, if not timely rain, cotton can not be unearthed. 2009 American cotton will suffer from severe drought. The United States average yield per acre may be reduced to 600 pounds. The United States may be less than 10 million total package.

Prediction is now a substantial decline in production is still too early. However, the Texas drought also reduced the reservoir water level. Some areas of Texas in May will not be felt until the threat of water shortages. Other regions to 6 months before the need for precipitation. There are some areas that will be early in July for lack of water and anxiety. Therefore, there is still ample time to reserve the limited soil moisture underlying. However, the nature of time in one day fade away, long-term prediction to the 50-year drought should not provide any mitigation hope.

Cotton demand is still lagging behind. However, cotton prices have been low, textile mills in the purchase price sufficient to profit. But now, do not purchase large quantities. Therefore, the price is still a stalemate in the current price range.