CCRI: New Cotton “rescue” imminent – Shouchu number of recommendations to 2,000,000 tons 328 Shouchu minimum price of seed cotton to 3 yuan catty

First, the total cotton production hit a second-year high

Cotton Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the National Cotton Industry Technology Development Center, the nation’s 15 provinces, municipalities and cotton farmers 5000 will be a long-term continuous monitoring of households As a result, prices rose by agricultural, to reduce the size of cotton this year, because the main production Area exposed to strong cold wave, drought, floods, as early as temporary low-temperature and other natural disasters and lack of light, generally reduce the yield of cotton this year, lower than the record total output of 2007, the 720 is expected to 7,350,000 tons, is still in the history of more than 700 10,000 tons the second year for high yield. It is relying on increased input, pay close attention to science and technology of cotton, to promote and advantages of transgenic cotton hybrid, the promotion of transplanting seedlings, mulching, wide coverage and film a series of advanced technology such as drip irrigation, pest control to strengthen the positive response Natural disasters, fighting to seize a foothold harvest, the hard-won high-yield harvest.

By the weather, the early opening of a boll of cotton this year, but the late harvest, the slow progress.

Second, the price of cotton at home and abroad all the way down, the market is “depressed” scene

By the financial crisis, cotton Rehabilitation listing in September, domestic and international futures, spot prices continued to fall all the way.

1, domestic and foreign cotton futures fell across the board. Zhengzhou: “811” in August of 13,130 yuan / ton fell on October 27 of 12,035 yuan / ton, by 1095 yuan, or 8.3 percent. “901” in August of 13,675 yuan / ton fell on October 27 of 12,170 yuan / ton, by 1505 yuan, or 11.0 percent. New York: “812” in August from the 69.37 cents / lb on October 27 fell to 47.1 cents / lb, by 22.27 cents, or 32.1 percent. “903” in August from the 74.42 cents / pound fell on October 27 of 50.95 cents / lb, by 23.47 cents, or 31.5 percent.

2, the spot at home and abroad continued to decline significantly. CC Index 8 months of 13,585 yuan / ton, down all the way into September, to Oct. 27 fell to 12,041 yuan / ton, by 1544 yuan / ton, or 11.3 percent. Cotlook A Index from August’s 78.08 cents / lb, down on October 27 of 57.95 cents / lb, by 20.13 cents / lb, or 25.8 percent.

Third, the financial crisis, domestic cotton face of the new “bear market”

By the market and consumer confidence, new domestic cotton prices all the way down into the second half of October, the price of seed cotton over the same period last year, fell 3 yuan catty reach into more than two, in mid-October on cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, processing enterprises still do not want to Admission, spinning enterprises still do not want to, the spread has become difficult to sell cotton, farmers are expected for the price of the complete collapse of the bottom line in mind. The domestic market this very desolate, “depression” scene, farmers and owners can not help but feel Fa Huang, cotton suffered years of the very few “bear market.”

1, sell slowly, down half of the year-on-year. Monitoring results of the progress of the sell on September 15 to 1.5 percent, slower than the same period last year by 0.5 percentage points. Sept. 30 was 8.4 percent, slower than the same period last year 50. More than half of this year, is expected to lag the market a strong feeling of helplessness.

2, seed cotton prices all the way down, from the year-on-year decline to as many as two. Monitoring results of seed cotton price on September 15 to 2.73 yuan / jin, the same period last year by 0.20 yuan / jin. September 30 to 2.73 yuan / jin, the same period last year by 0.10 yuan / jin. Last year, on October 30 seed cotton price of 3 yuan / jin, in the same period this year dropped to 2.2-2.3 yuan / jin, fell 26.6 percent, the market deserted, with expectations of 3.1 catty to run counter to the price of 3.3 yuan, far, cotton growers Burning with anxiety.

3, suffered current market “bear market”, cotton panic, the price is expected to complete loss of confidence. All the way in the first half of agricultural and high scenarios On the contrary, all the way down the price of the new cotton, cotton farmers and the price is expected to be the opposite. October should have been entered for the acquisition of the peak, but the current price there is no city, deserted the market. Hard Trading in a Dream cotton farmers in general, a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see corporate acquisitions, and some do not Kaicheng, textile companies do not want to buy the domestic market this desolate, “depression” scene, farmers and owners can not help but feel Fa Huang, cotton suffered years of the very few “bear market” With grievances.

Fourth, for serious production and marketing situation, the Government has put Urban imminent

In the face of tough cotton production and marketing situation, in the face of fierce price in the first half of agricultural materials such as the tiger, all the way down in the second half of cotton price and sell cotton difficult to form a contrast between the two extremes, we must enthusiastically concerned about the production of cotton, cotton farmers enthusiastically concerned about the increase , Enthusiastically introduced positive measures to rescue the market, the implementation of the State Council, in the fourth quarter to do a good job on the grain and cotton purchase, to that end, calls upon the Government to rescue the market, the hand on hand! Measures:

1, a significant increase in cotton reserves of the acquisition, the number of Shouchu increased to 2,000,000 tons, the state cotton reserves to seize this good opportunity. The state has decided on October 21 in Xinjiang Shouchu 220,000 tons, from the look at the number of low indeed. Even Shouchu increased to 2,000,000 tons, accounting for less than a total of 1 / 3, and a small number of the market can not start. In the region to look at the layout of Xinjiang and the mainland. This is also the country follow the example of newly issued to buy North-East rice, corn and soybeans. Cotton related to people’s livelihood, more than 200,000,000 related to the proceeds of cotton farmers should also be the case. At the same time, suffered current cotton “bear market”, is also to increase the country’s cotton reserves a good time, the state cotton reserves to start with the acquisition of market principles, should control the means of quick start.

2, Shouchu increase in the minimum price of 328 recommendations of the lowest seed cotton price Shouchu catty to 3 yuan. Even the lowest price Shouchu catty to 3 yuan, the same as last year, the cotton yield will also be measured by 168 yuan / mu, or up to three more into; cotton sown area of 8789 mu country, the overall interests of farmers will be reduced by about 15,000,000,000 yuan . This is because in the first half of this year’s cotton production costs increased 135.7 yuan / mu, together with the national yield of 4 percent due to lower levels.

The state has decided on October 21 in Xinjiang Shouchu 220,000 to a maximum price of the Treasury (328) 12,600 yuan / ton, to consider processing fees, transportation costs and profits of about 1,000 yuan / ton, the estimated price of cottonseed 0.75 yuan per Jin clothes At 37%, seed cotton price catty 2.5 to 2.6 yuan. Bao Cong-li small farmers to reduce the starting price is indeed on the low side.

To this end, the 328 recommendations of the lowest seed cotton price Shouchu catty to 3 yuan, 37% of lint (after the impurity), cottonseed catty price of 0.75 yuan, 6.8 yuan lint catty; add cost and profit per Jin 0.5 yuan, 7.3 yuan lint catty. If the 328 catty seed cotton price to 2.85 yuan, 37% of lint, cottonseed catty price of 0.75 yuan, 6.42 yuan lint catty; plus processing costs and profits catty 0.5 yuan, 6.92 yuan lint catty.

Recently (October 10) put the national price of grain into a year-on-year rise, if the cotton catty to take the lowest 3 yuan, will help maintain the national grain and cotton prices reasonable so as to maintain a reasonable Liang Jing acreage, Moreover, cotton is the incremental cost of agricultural food is greater than 50%.

3, an increase of funds to buy, not to fight to secure a “white.” In accordance with the State Council to do a good job in the fourth quarter of the deployment of grain and cotton purchase, it is necessary to increase the cotton loans, the adequacy of funds related to the acquisition could work well, the stability of the market.

4. The expansion of seed cotton subsidies, cotton farmers to mobilize the enthusiasm. The first is to subsidize the implementation of the Generalized System of Preferences, the number of cotton varieties make up the number of species. The second is to increase the strength of subsidies, subsidies from 15 yuan / mu 30 to 50 yuan / mu.

5, think more highly of the country to strictly control the import of cotton. Next year’s cotton import quota to size up the situation, the tariff rate quota must not be reduced to 3%.

Five, the weight “rescue” will have a positive effect

1, will help alleviate the financial crisis on the production of cotton and cotton spinning industry, the impact will help ease the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton. The current global financial crisis are spreading the real economy, the impact on the cotton industry will continue. In the face of the crisis, the Government has taken measures to Shouchu is suitable and appropriate for the Government to take the cotton and save the market for granted.

2, in favor of agriculture to alleviate the pressure of inflation will help farmers increase income, which is conducive to stimulating rural consumption, which is to implement the central authorities on the promotion of initiatives to increase income of farmers. Cotton related to people’s livelihood, more than 200,000,000 related to the proceeds of cotton farmers, enabling the city to save in the first half to reduce imported inflation pressures. Cotton production in the first half of this year, hit the “double high” weight, as agricultural prices, in the first half of the cost of cash by 135.7 yuan / mu, an increase of nearly 30 percent. Farmers, “agricultural prices as fierce tiger,” It is estimated that production costs by 200 yuan / mu, an increase of more than 20%, reaching 1,200 yuan / mu.

3, is conducive to maintaining the national grain and cotton double growth. Accession to the WTO, China’s grain and cotton emergence of a rare double-double harvest and production of a new pattern, that is, the national grain and cotton production simultaneously, this is a good pattern for many years the adjustment of agricultural structure to achieve positive results, and should be treasured. If you do not save the market place, next year or the next few years, reduced cotton planting area, to meet the demand for cotton is unfavorable, at the same time, once the two-grain and cotton production pattern is broken and need to rebuild for many years.