When the number of foreign trade enterprises can have a break from last year have not yet, the calendar has samples of this year, many uncertainties still exist, while Europe and the United States economy is still a recession is defined.

General Administration of Customs announced a few weeks ago, the foreign trade data show that the import and export in November last year fell 17.9% and 2.2%, respectively, since February 2005 and June 2001 the first negative growth. China’s foreign trade of the “winter” is really coming. So far, the six major factors that directly affect this year’s foreign trade: Europe and the United States economy continues to deteriorate resulting in reduction of China’s export orders; the risk of depreciation of the dollar to make Chinese enterprises dare not take big one-or long single; increased trade protectionism, increasing barriers to trade; foreign financial institutions or enterprises led to the closure of domestic enterprises to increase foreign exchange risks; raw material price fluctuations difficult situation prediction; domestic small and medium enterprises with financing difficulties.

Foreign trade, “winter” how many “cold” and foreign trade “freezing point” when the melting of two of the crack of suspense, still depends on the international market demand. If Europe and the United States economic recession intensified, and even speed up the reduction of demand in emerging markets, then this year, China’s import and export is still optimistic about the unspeakable.

Pessimism

From the Commerce Department’s report to the analysis of major investment bank, from research institutions to foreign trade enterprises, and so far no finding on China’s foreign trade this year, optimistic and positive forecasts.

In November last year, the Ministry of Commerce issued by China’s foreign trade situation report (autumn 2008) believe that the situation at the time, the international economic situation to deteriorate to the impact of China’s import and export could further deepen.

Last year, foreign trade data are not yet known. Development and Reform Commission last month predicted that total imports and exports last year, more than 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of more than 15%, a surplus of more than 280 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of more than 18 billion U.S. dollars.

In the outside world, the fact that such a high surplus, high export situation will be with last year’s past, which ends.

International investment bank Merrill Lynch released last month reported that this year’s economic forecast, with the financial crisis and slowing global growth this year and next year will be weaker global exports, more than 10 years of global exports prosperity will come to an end.

This inevitably reminds one of China’s exports of negative growth. In 2001 before the 5 months export growth of 11%, well below the 2000 growth rate of 27.8 percent, more month of negative growth. At that time, through a series of foreign trade system reform and the U.S. economy recover gradually entering China’s exports rose channel. Most importantly, China’s accession to the WTO by the end of 2001.

Experts have pointed out that China’s export situation is nearing a critical stage in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis, while the external environment has deteriorated even more.

International rating agency Moody’s rating last month released report predicts that China’s real GDP (gross domestic product) growth will slow to 7% ~ 8%, due to exports of goods and services this year is expected to shrink 2 percent, its impact will promotion of investment over the fiscal stimulus measures. The current global financial crisis on the adverse impact of China’s foreign trade, it seems higher than the 1997 Asian financial crisis or recession in 2001 the impact of the U.S. economy.

When warmer

It seems every time when the external environment, but also China’s foreign trade system reform or policy-intensive introduction of the occasion. In 2001, the then Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation issued a circular, China will expand the foreign-invested enterprises the right to open trade; canceled for many years, the export examination and approval system for different categories of ownership enterprises the right to operate import and export registration and Approval System.

To cope with the financial crisis on the impact of China’s exports last year, the second half of the export tax rebate rate 4 times adjustments: the first part mainly textiles, clothing; the second time for some textiles, clothing, toys; the third time to improve the part of labor-intensive products, mechanical and electrical products and other products affected by the larger export tax rebate rate; the fourth time is directed at mechanical and electrical products. In addition, the suspension of the processing trade restricted margin台账”real transfer” policy, the processing trade restricted and prohibited categories, such as adjustment policies were introduced, in addition to SME financing policy, foreign trade enterprises fully aware of the domestic policy environment, “spring.”

The effects of policies can play a useful role? Exports when warmer?

External expectations, the policy as early as in the first quarter of this year will take effect. However, if the external environment continues to deteriorate, the effectiveness of policies will be discounted. Some mechanical and electrical giant enterprises that policy adjustments on the export of export enterprises to reduce costs and improve the international competitiveness of both enterprises will be able to further optimize the industrial structure and changing the mode of economic development.

JP Morgan Chase in the first quarter of the forecast report said that foreign trade policy adjustments can only help enterprises to maintain moderate growth. The first half of global economic growth will also slow down, will lead to China’s exports continued to decline, this year exports are likely to only 3 percent year-on-year growth.

Imports of good

Suspense in foreign trade, the price factor has become weaker, the beginning of last year’s inflation situation has improved, the global prices of raw materials into the downlink channel.

General Administration of Customs recently issued warning in November last year, commodity commentary. Month of iron ore imports rebounded slightly to 32.52 million tons, while year-on-year decline in negative growth for the first time last year, but the monthly average price of imports continued to fall to 122.7 U.S. dollars / ton, up 8.6 percent, the Central than the 11.7 percent decrease. Soybean imports average price for a single month decline in import prices for the month 509.3 U.S. dollars / ton, down from the beginning of last year.

Last month, a State Council executive meeting to establish a stable foreign trade policy measures mentioned that the expansion of domestic demand for imports of products. Increased focus on advanced technology, key equipment and components and important products such as energy and raw material imports.

In fact, stimulating domestic demand in the background, is bound to increase imports, especially raw materials, machinery and manufacturing categories of imports will increase to some extent.

Foreign trade in the “winter”, you can expect is that the Chinese enterprises to seize the international prices of raw materials declined the favorable opportunity to promote the resumption of growth in Chinese imports.